Thank you for contacting me about leaving the EU without a trade agreement at the end of the transition period.
You may be interested in a recent report from the Centre for Brexit Policy, available here: https://centreforbrexitpolicy.org.uk/publications/do-not-delay-brexit/
This report found that Red Wall voters remain remain as convinced as ever that getting Brexit done is a priority. Recent polling which the CBP has commissioned clearly demonstrates that any extension to the transition period beyond the end of 2020 would prove deeply unpopular and see a marked decline in support for the Government.
The CBP’s survey, carried out by Savanta ComRes, found that 51% of Red Wall voters believe that the transition period should remain as it is or be shortened, in comparison to 42% who want an extension. 40% of 2019 Conservative voters in Red Wall seats would feel less favourable to the Conservatives were they to extend the transition period. A third of 2019 Conservative voters who voted Labour in 2017 would be less likely to vote Conservative were the transition period extended, while just a quarter would be more likely.
The UK will leave the EU at the end of the transition period with either a Canada-style free trade agreement or the 2019 deal. This will give a trading relationship similar to the one Australia enjoys with the EU.
No deal is now an irrelevant concept. The UK left the EU on 31 January with a deal. The question now is whether we can agree with the EU a deeper trading relationship on the lines of the free trade agreement the EU has with Canada, or whether we have a trading relationship based on the 2019 deal, without a free trade agreement on the lines of Australia’s.
Negotiations are currently ongoing and both sides are seeking a free trade agreement with no tariffs, quotas, fees or charges across all goods sectors as well as further provisions on services and security cooperation. The Withdrawal Agreement legally commits the UK and the EU to seek to reach and implement a future relationship agreement in good faith by the end of the transition period.
I am hopeful that this can be achieved. The UK is not asking for a special, bespoke, or unique deal. We are looking for a deal like those the EU has previously struck with other friendly countries like Canada.
Thank you again for contacting me.